Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington without results
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a long record of siding with Israel since his first term, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something Russia has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the war is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.