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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|